Latest estimate for Starship launches required to support a Moon landing? 22.

According to Ars Technica, a NASA safety panel estimates that roughly 22 Starship launches would be needed to fuel a lunar lander for an Artemis Moon mission, a figure significantly higher than previous "high single digits to low double digits" projections. Panel member Charlie Precourt cited this number during a quarterly meeting, noting the many first-time operations that reduce the likelihood of success for the Artemis IV timeline. NASA has historically guarded this estimate due to uncertainties in orbital propellant transfer efficiency and boil-off rates.

SpaceX founder Elon Musk disputed the panel's figure, stating the actual requirement will be closer to six to eight flights. The discrepancy reflects ongoing uncertainty about Starship's lift capacity improvements and the pace of flight-rate increases. Even with a target of twice-weekly launches by late 2027, fueling a depot would take about three months. NASA continues to target a human lunar landing in 2028 while working with both SpaceX and Blue Origin to address development barriers.

Source

Latest estimate for Starship launches required to support a Moon landing? 22. — Ars Technica