Analysts find looming launch crisis is "more severe" than anticipated

A new report from Quilty Space finds a significant global rocket shortage outside China over the next five years, with a shortfall of about 150 launches by 2030. The gap could double if U.S. military demand is added and SpaceX does not extend its Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy programs. The crisis stems from Russian rockets leaving the Western market, soaring demand from megaconstellation operators and small‑satellite startups, delays in new vehicles such as New Glenn, Vulcan, Neutron, Terran R and Nova, and the retirement of Falcon 9 from commercial service. The crunch is expected to peak around 2028 before slowly improving.

SpaceX’s Starship could resolve the shortage given its payload capacity and reuse potential, but the company has not aggressively marketed it commercially and has not committed to developing a larger payload fairing door. Blue Origin’s New Glenn may help; Quilty forecasts a conservative launch cadence. Meanwhile, the U.S. military has sharply increased its forecast for national security launches, though Quilty excluded this surge because the Space Force may compel SpaceX to prioritize those missions.

Source

Analysts find looming launch crisis is "more severe" than anticipated — Ars Technica