Tesla (TSLA) Q3 2026 earnings preview: flat revenue, falling profits

According to Electrek, Tesla reports Q3 2026 results tomorrow, October 21, with analysts expecting flat revenue and a 10% drop in non-GAAP EPS despite deliveries of 486,532 vehicles beating consensus by over 24,000. Deliveries fell 2.1% from the prior-year record but exceeded production by 22,141 units, the second straight quarter of inventory reduction. Energy storage deployments of 13.7 GWh rose 9.6% annually but missed estimates. Revenue consensus of about $28.1 billion matches Q3 2025, which benefited from an expiring tax credit, while sequential revenue is seen dipping slightly despite higher volumes, implying lower average prices.

Automotive gross margin excluding credits fell to 16.3% in Q2, and regulatory credit revenue dropped 67% year-over-year. Free cash flow was negative $1.09 billion in Q2 as capex more than doubled, with over $25 billion planned for 2026. The shareholder Q&A closes today with 832 questions from 2,860 participants. The auto business remains flat year-to-date and reliant almost entirely on two models.

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Tesla (TSLA) Q3 2026 earnings preview: flat revenue, falling profits — Electrek